Mar (Russo) Negro II

Este artigo é o seguimento de um outro que fiz em Abril Mar (Russo) Negro, passou meio ano e estamos numa boa altura para verificarmos os avanços que estão a ser feitos.

 

Como tinha indicado na altura, o panorama do Mar Negro está a mudar, a Rússia tem novos territórios e pretende infestar o mar com novos submarinos (e não só), actualmente tem apenas um, mas a coisa está a mudar e este artigo pretende mostrar isso mesmo.

O panorama que se está a formar

 





Em Agosto temos o começo da alteração do cenário, com a passagem ao activo do primeiro submarino e o lançamento à àgua do 3º de uma série de 6. Os prazos parecem estar a ser cumpridos, com a indicação de que até ao final do ano vai dar início à construção dos 2 últimos.

 

De notar que os 3 primeiros submarinos, começaram a ser construidos, em 2010, 2011, 2012 respectivamente. Portanto, para o primeiro, passaram 4 anos. Mas, vale a pena reparar nisto, o 4º submarino começou a ser construido neste Fevereiro, e a indicação é que em Outubro começam os outros dois, ou seja, os restantes 3 submarinos, começam a construção em 2014 e é para estar tudo pronto em 2016. 3 submarinos em plena crise ucraniana e no meio de sanções, a Rússia não está a abrandar em nenhum projecto, além dos gastos acrescidos agora com a Crimeia.

Novorossiysk, entrada em serviço em 22 de Agosto de 2014, o 2º da série está para entrar em serviço até ao final deste ano

 

 

"The Project 636.3 submarines are an improved version of the 'Kilo' class, featuring uprated diesels, a propulsion motor rotating at half the speed (250 rpm), higher standards of noise reduction and an automated combat information system capable of providing simultaneous fire-control data on five targets."

Stary Oskol, lançado à àgua em 28 de Agosto de 2014

 

Ou seja, tudo aponta que para o inicio de 2015, o Mar Negro terá uma nova realidade, várias novas embarcações russas estarão no activo e isto terá impacto nas visitas de embarcações da NATO à Ucrânia e Geórgia.

 

Neste momento, temos 4 embarcações da NATO que entraram ontem no Mar Negro para exercícios com a Ucrânia, e já existe mais um cuidado a ter, anda por ali um novo submarino.

 

"...

The Arleigh Burke class guided-missile destroyer USS Ross and French frigate Commandant Birot were expected to enter Black Sea waters on September 3, with Spanish and Canadian frigates to follow on September 6.

 

Under the Montreux Convention, naval vessels of countries that do not border the Black Sea may remain in its waters no more than 21 days – a matter that has been the subject of complaints by Russia of late, with Moscow alleging that some Nato vessels have breached this agreement..."

 

A partir deste ano as embarcações da NATO vão sentir-se cada vez mais desconfortáveis nas suas curtas visitas ao Mar Negro. Agora a Crimeia é russa e no mar está uma alcateia cada vez maior à espreita...

 

P.S.:

Apenas estou a focar os submarinos, mas o investimento naval no Mar Negro é bem mais ambicioso, a realidade para 2016, são 6 submarinos e 6 fragatas, uma destas também para entrar no activo ainda este ano. Ou seja o desconforto das forças navais da NATO nesta zona vai aumentar exponencialmente.

South Stream Está... Suspenso??

 

 

 

Muito se tem falado acerca do South Stream e o que ficou retido na memória das pessoas é que o pipeline está parado. A situação da Ucrânia, o aumento das tensões, fez com que a Europa suspendesse o pipeline.

 

Eu tenho colocado vários artigos acerca deste pipeline e da sua importância e agora quero mostrar o que actualmente se está a passar. Apesar de oficialmente o pipeline estar suspenso, o facto é que não está. O que está, é longe da atenção da imprensa o que permite ir avançando e pensar como contornar as questões políticas (Terceiro Pacote Energético da União Europeia) que impede o normal avanço do pipeline.

 

Neste momento temos duas situações interessantes, uma delas é o fornecimento de secções a um porto da Bulgária, o que mostra que além de estarem a ser construidos, estão a ser ENTREGUES.

 

 

Tubagem do South Stream que foi descarregado num porto Búlgaro

Depois de terem sido descarregados no porto, dias mais tarde, chega um dos navios especial para colocação da tubagem no fundo do mar.

Um dos navios especiais que coloca a tubagem no fundo do mar

 

Ou seja, para algo que está suspenso, estamos a ver bastante actividade. A juntarmos isto, temos a Europipe, a empresa ALEMÃ que ganhou o contrato de fornecimento para o South Stream e que não está parada a ver passar navios, como se pode ver.

 



 Tubagem pronta para entrega na Europipe.

Portanto tudo está a mexer, excepto a construção do pipeline propriamente dito em território europeu. Tudo está pronto para começar, falta ultrapassar a questão do Terceiro Pacote Energético da União Europeia e aqui entramos na segunda situação interessante.
 

Os países europeus afectados pela suspensão da UE, estão a tentar criar um "bypass" para dar a volta à questão política. Aqui entra um dos países europeus que está a puxar pelo o pipeline, a Aústria, e que parece que vai entrar com uma solução. Parece que os pipelines que transportam gás vindo de zonas de prospecção europeias, estão fora da legislação do pacote energético, e a Aústria explora uma zona, na Bulgária, e este gás tem que ser transportado, parece que vão tentar arranjar algo onde se possa incluir o South Stream.

Ou seja muita força está a ser feita para que o South Stream continue a avançar (e está a avançar), apesar de estar suspenso.

Apesar do histerismo criado à volta da questão ucraniana, a Europa, continua a fazer as ligações energéticas com a Rússia. Porque elas têm que ser feitas.

Agora como explicar isto a uma população europeia, que está constantemente a ser bombardeada pelos mídia, sobre o grande bicho papão que é a Rússia?

As pessoas não se apercebem das voltas que o mundo dá, para que no conforto do seu lar, o gás esteja sempre disponível...

 

Os Ventos Começam a Mudar Na Ucrânia?

 

 

Definitivamente parece haver algo no ar. Alguém anda a fazer contas e não está a gostar do cheque que está a passar.
 

Duas notícias bastante interessantes vindas do motor da UE, ou seja a Alemanha.
 

A primeira é bastante curiosa, pois afinal toda a gente sabe que o "mundo" está a aplicar sanções à Rússia. Mas...

 

Germany clears $6.9 billion RWE unit sale to Russian investor

 

Germany's economy ministry approved the sale of utility RWE's (RWEG.DE) oil and gas unit DEA to a Russian investor despite tensions between Russia and the West over the Ukraine crisis...

 

...As part of the deal, Russian tycoon Mikhail Fridman and his co-investors will get stakes in about 190 oil and gas licenses or concessions in Europe, the Middle East and North Africa...

 

[Link] 

 

Bem, não estamos a falar de coisa pouca. E isto foi aprovado, numa altura como esta, em que as relações com a Rússia estão ao rubro. Portanto algo está a ser cozinhado. O quê, provalvelmente iremos descobrir em breve.

 

Como se não bastasse este curioso salto sobre as sanções à Rússia, temos a Merkel a fazer algumas declarações bastante interessantes. Algo vem aí.

 

Aconselho ler primeiro o que está a bold e depois ler o artigo por inteiro se assim o entender.

 

Merkel: Ukraine can go to Eurasian Union

 

Germany’s Angela Merkel has said Ukraine is free to “go to” Russia’s “Eurasian Union”, amid signs of a new willingness to make peace with Russian leader Vladimir Putin.

Speaking to German public broadcaster ARD on Sunday (24 August), the German chancellor said her visit to Kiev on Saturday was designed to prepare for peace talks between Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko and Putin in Minsk on Tuesday, but warned the public not to expect a "breakthrough”.

 

She mentioned Ukrainian “decentralisation”, a deal on gas prices, and Ukraine’s “trade relations” with Russia as elements that could bring about an accord.

 

"And if Ukraine says we are going to the Eurasian Union now, the European Union would never make a big conflict out of it, but would insist on a voluntary decision," Merkel added.

 

"I want to find a way, as many others do, which does not damage Russia. We [Germany] want to have good trade relations with Russia as well. We want reasonable relations with Russia. We are depending on one another and there are so many other conflicts in the world where we should work together, so I hope we can make progress”.

 

The Minsk event is billed as a summit of the three states - Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Russia - in Putin’s “Customs Union”.

 

Poroshenko and three senior EU officials - foreign affairs chief Catherine Ashton, trade commissioner Karel De Gucht, and energy commissioner Gunther Oettinger - will also attend.

It is the first time EU commissioners will go to a Customs Union meeting, in what Merkel said signals the EU's engagement in solving the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

 

Russia set up the Customs Union as an alternative to the Eastern Partnership, an EU project to create a free trade zone with former Soviet states.

 

The Customs Union is to be changed into a political “Eurasian Union” on 1 January 2015.

For his part, Poroshenko, who was elected on the back of a pro-Western revolution in February, has already signed an EU free trade deal (DCFTA) and has promised to ratify it in September before general elections.

 

The DCFTA legally obliges Ukraine to stay out of the Customs Union.

 

But earlier on Saturday in Kiev, Merkel also indicated she is willing to make trade concessions to Moscow. “This [trade] is of greatest importance to Russia. I think, this has an importance beyond pure economics, it also has a psychological importance”, she said.

 

Poroshenko himself noted: “The choice the Ukrainian people made is a European choice. We have a clear position on the EU … free trade agreement”.

 

But he added the EU "would have nothing against" some form of Ukrainian association with Russia after the conflict in east Ukraine ends.

 

Some EU diplomats see Merkel’s ARD remarks on the Eurasian Union as a rhetorical statement meant to underline that Ukraine’s foreign policy is its sovereign choice.

 

But others fear Berlin is making a deal with Moscow over the heads of Brussels and Kiev.

 

Noting that German energy firm RWE this weekend sold an oil and gas extraction company, Dea, to Russian firm LetterOne in a deal worth €5.1 billion, one EU diplomat told this website: “There are signs Germany is seeking a return to peace and to business as usual at any price … even if this means putting off Ukraine’s ratification of the EU free trade pact”.

 

“That would be the death of the Eastern Partnership … It would be a catastrophe for EU foreign policy”.

 

Ukraine’s ambassador to the EU, Konstantin Yeliseyev, told this website on Monday there is no question of not ratifying the EU trade pact in September.

 

“This is our official line and this is the line that we will bring to Minsk”, he said.

 

“Our position is crystal clear … at the same time, we would of course consider a constructive partnership with the future Eurasian Union. I don’t exclude it. But not to the detriment of our European choice”.

 

Meanwhile, a European Commission official noted that while the DCFTA is legally incompatible with the Customs Union, it might be compatible with the Eurasian Union.

 

“She [Merkel] said ‘Eurasian Union’, not ‘Customs Union’ … If they [Ukraine] became a member in political terms only of some alternative model of integration, then, theoretically, there might not be a problem. We don’t know how the Eurasian Union will work because it doesn't exist yet”.

 

No Nato

 

Andrey Illarionov, a former aide to Putin who works for the Cato Institute, a think tank in Washington, also wrote on his blog on Sunday there is a Merkel-Putin deal in the making.

 

He said it includes: Ukraine talks with pro-Russia rebels that would freeze the conflict and give Putin de facto control of east Ukraine; a promise that Ukraine will never join the EU; a promise it will never join Nato.

 

Merkel in her ARD interview said "Nato membership for Ukraine is not on the agenda". She added that Poroshenko's participation at a Nato summit in September in Wales is part of Nato-Ukraine co-operation, "but not membership."

[Link]

Parece-me realmente, que algo está a ser cozinhado entre Merkel e Putin.

E a Ucrânia terá que fazer, o que tiver que fazer.

PM Ucraniano Diz Que Precisa De Gás Russo Para O Inverno

 

 

Ele há coisas surpreendentes. A Ucrânia enfrenta uma guerra civil, perdeu parte do território para a Rússia, está na bancarrota, tem dívidas e ainda consegue dizer ao fim deste tempo todo e de tudo o que se está a passar, que necessita de gás russo para o Inverno.

 

Nem se preocupam em comprar gás a fornecedor alternativos. Porquê? é simples. A Ucrânia não consegue comprar gás a preços de mercado e neste momento quem vai vender a eles mesmo a esse preço? só pagando adiantado. Mas aí entramos noutro problema, a Ucrânia não tem dinheiro. E do pouco que tem, cada vez vale menos, ou seja os custos para adquirir gás lá fora, aumentam exponencialmente.

 

As asneiras são tantas, que vamos assistir à progressiva desintegração de um país que aspira padrões europeus.

 

Deixo um artigo que refere o que o PM ucraniano disse:

 

Ukraine faces difficult winter without Russian gas: PM

 

Ukraine faces a long and cold winter, Prime Minister Yatseniuk warned on Friday, saying the country needs a further 5 billion cubic metres of Russian gas and may need to import coal due to the impact of the conflict in its industrial eastern regions.

 

Months of fighting between government forces and separatist rebels in eastern Ukraine has forced coal mines to cut production or close entirely, imperilling the country's electricity market.

 

Meanwhile Russia, which supplied about half of the gas Ukraine used last year, cut supplies on June 16 in a row over pricing and in the wake of Moscow's annexation of Crimea.

 

Asked in a televised interview if he thought Ukraine could survive without Russian gas, Yatseniuk said: "No ... The situation (in winter) will be extremely difficult."

 

Ukrainian state-owned gas company Naftogaz has put aside $3.1 billion to buy gas for the forthcoming winter period, he said.

 

Ukraine has also been trying to secure more gas from the European Union and cut consumption levels from last year's 50 billion cubic metres (bcm). It currently has 15 bcm in its gas reserves, Yatseniuk said.

 

The prime minister said Ukraine, a net exporter of thermal coal, used for power generation, is considering buying non-Ukrainian coal as domestic output has been hit by the conflict with infrastructure destroyed by artillery fire and supply networks disrupted.

 

Around half of the 115 coal mines in Ukraine, Europe's second-largest coal producer, have halted production and output fell 22 percent year-on-year in July to 5.6 million tonnes.

 

"The mines have been bombed so there's no production of thermal coal ... Without supplies to power plants, there are problems with electricity and heating," Yatseniuk said.

 

In the latest escalation of the conflict, Ukraine said on Friday Russia had launched a "direct invasion" of its territory after Moscow sent a convoy of aid trucks across the border. 

[Link]

Sanções Russas

 

 

 

Eu confesso, que me interrogo muito acerca das cabecinhas pensadoras, que andam ao leme da União Europeia. A UE já anda com problemas INTERNOS mais que suficientes e resolve intrometer-se na Ucrânia da pior maneira possível. A Ucrânia depende de gás subsidiado russo. A UE DEPENDE de gás russso. E agora estamos todos metidos neste molho de bróculos. E estamos nisto por causa de políticos europeus habituados à boa vida e inchados de poder que a UE lhes transmite.

 

Só que a Rússia não é um Iraque, um Afeganistão, uma Líbia ou uma Síria. A Rússia é um país muito grande, é uma grande potência económica (quer queiramos quer não, esta é a realidade), uma potência militar e uma potência ENERGÉTICA e com GRANDES reservas finnaceiras.

 

A UE e Rússia são parceiros económicos de grandes dimensões. Como é possível a Europa estar a querer arranjar problemas económicos quando já os tem em quantidade suficiente em casa? O BES é um exemplo de como andam as coisa na Europa. APARENTEMENTE estão bem. APARENTEMENTE.

 

Sanções à Rússia?? Porque acham que as que fizeram ao Irão foram um estrondoso sucesso? e agora foram meter-se com a Rússia? de quem dependem energéticamente? Vão prejudicar a Rússia? concerteza. Mas também nos vamos prejudicar porque a Rússia tem capacidade de resposta ao contrário do Irão.

 

A Europa está com problemas económicos!  QUANTO nos vai custar esta brincadeira feita por políticos preguiçosos, moles e de vistas curtas? QUANTO nos vai custar isto? Quanto nos vai custar a Ucrânia? É incrivel a nossa ânsia na procura de problemas. E estamos a encontrá-los. Alguns artigos para reflectir:

 

 

Poland and Norway to be Hardest Hit by Russian Sanctions

 

Russia has banned imports of US and European agricultural goods in retaliation to sanctions against it relating to the conflict in Ukraine.

 

Among Western nations, Poland is set to the hardest-hit due to the Russian sanctions. The country exports over $1.12bn of agricultural products to Russia every year and its fruit sector, apples in particular, would face a severe blow.

 

With exports to Russia totalling $1.1bn every year, Norway closely follows Poland. The Norwegian seafood industry is also searching for new export markets, especially for salmon. The country exported over a billion dollars worth of fish to Russia in 2013.

 

The Netherland comes next with exports of more than $850m, followed by Spain and the US.

European farmers are already suffering from slow economic growth and falling food prices in the EU.

 

[...]

 

[Link]

 

 

Hungary PM Orban condemns EU sanctions on Russia

 

Hungary's conservative Prime Minister Viktor Orban says the EU is harming itself by imposing sanctions on Russia, describing the measures as "shooting oneself in the foot".

 

He was speaking after his Slovak counterpart, Robert Fico, had also criticised the EU sanctions.

 

Russia is Hungary's main trading partner outside the EU. Both Hungary and Slovakia depend on Russian gas.

 

The EU says Russia must stop supporting armed separatists in Ukraine.

 

Speaking on Hungary's Kossuth Radio, Mr Orban said "the sanctions policy pursued by the West... causes more harm to us than to Russia.

 

"In politics, this is called shooting oneself in the foot."

 

EU sanctions are now restricting Russian state access to Western loans, and blocking exports of defence-related equipment to Russia. EU exports of oil industry technology to Russia are also banned, but not gas-related equipment.

 

The EU, US and several other Western countries have also blacklisted dozens of senior Russian officials - many of them close to President Vladimir Putin - and firms accused of helping the pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine.

 

Russia retaliated by banning a wide range of imported Western food.

 

Call for sanctions review

Mr Orban said it was not just European farmers who would need compensation from the EU for lost exports to Russia. "The entire sanctions policy should be reconsidered," he said.

 

In January Russia signed a major deal to provide Hungary with two new reactors at a nuclear plant generating some 40% of the country's electricity.

 

[...]

 

"Why should we jeopardise the EU economy that begins to grow?" he told a news conference.

"If there is a crisis situation, it should be solved by other means than meaningless sanctions."

[Link]

Relatos da Ucrânia - VI

 

 

Continuo a insistir na economia ucraniana, ela está num beco sem saída e o país também. Acrescento este artigo que chama a atenção para isso, a este ritmo vamos ter uma implosão em breve, e vem aí o Inverno. A Ucrânia não está a receber gás. Como é que vão ultrapassar a situação? não vão.

 

E o conflito... não parece que esteja para acabar já. Quem vai injectar dinheiro nestas condições?

 

Um artigo que chama a atenção, para o dinheiro que a Ucrânia está a "derreter"... até quando?

 

Ukraine's Currency Hits a New Low

 

Escalating tensions with Russia sent Ukraine's currency tumbling to a record low against the dollar Tuesday, a move that could threaten the stability of the country's banking system and raise the prospect of losses for bondholders.
 

The sharp decline this month ends a period of relative tranquility in the country's financial markets. A mid-April interest-rate increase by the Ukrainian central bank and a $17 billion bailout from the International Monetary Fund later in the month had soothed investor jitters. The bailout was aimed at staving off economic collapse after protests toppled the previous government.
 

But the latest move down for the hryvnia points to investors' growing belief that more financial support will be required. In the past week alone, the currency has lost 6% against the dollar, driven by continued fighting in Ukraine's eastern region and worries that Russia's efforts to provide humanitarian assistance could lay the groundwork for an invasion.
 

A weaker hryvnia increases the burden on Ukraine's economy, boosting the cost of the energy and other imports the country relies on and making it more expensive for the country's government and companies to pay back debt denominated in foreign currencies.
 

[...]

 

The recent fall in the hryvnia is "a significant move," said Steffen Reichold, portfolio manager at Stone Harbor Investment Partners LP, adding that it could lead to a costly recapitalization of Ukraine's banks. "One of the few rules of banking crises is that bank recapitalizations tend to always be bigger than you think at the outset."
 

[...]
 

After intervening to support its currency, Ukraine's central bank says it scaled back its efforts and is committed to a policy of a flexible exchange rate. While answering questions before parliament Tuesday, National Bank of Ukraine Governor Valeria Gontareva said the loan agreement with the IMF prevents the bank from actively supporting its currency. She attributed the latest drop in the hryvnia to panic.
 

After jumping in May thanks to the IMF bailout, Ukraine's foreign-currency reserves resumed their decline in June and fell $1 billion last month, to $16.07 billion, according to the National Bank of Ukraine.
 

The IMF said initial stress tests of the country's banking sector showed Ukraine might need to spend the equivalent of up to 5% of its gross domestic product to stabilize its banks if the hryvnia weakened below 12.5 to the dollar. On Tuesday, the currency traded as low as 13.14 to the dollar.
 

[...]
 

Ukraine's economy was facing a host of economic problems, from wide budget and trade deficits to dwindling foreign-currency reserves, even before tensions with its eastern neighbor ramped up this spring. Some of the biggest Ukrainian companies have recently shown signs of stress.
 

Agricultural giant Mriya Agro Holding on Aug. 1 said it had missed payments on some of its debt and was considering a broader restructuring.
 

[...]

 

[Link]

Relatos da Ucrânia - V

A situação da Ucrânia pode ser um catalisador para coisas bem mais sérias. Um ataque ao dólar.

Russia Sanctions Accelerate Risk to Dollar Dominance 

U.S. and European Union sanctions against Russia threaten to hasten a move away from the dollar that’s been stirring since the global financial crisis.

One place the shift has become evident is Hong Kong, where dollar selling has led the central bank to buy more than $9.5 billion since July 1 to prevent its currency from rallying as the sanctions stoked speculation of an influx of Russian cash. OAO MegaFon, Russia’s second-largest wireless operator, shifted some cash holdings into the city’s dollar. Trading of the Chinese yuan versus the Russian ruble rose to the highest on July 31 since the end of 2010, according to the Moscow Exchange.

While no one’s suggesting the dollar will lose its status as the main currency of business any time soon, its dominance is ebbing. The greenback’s share of global reserves has already shrunk to under 61 percent from more than 72 percent in 2001. The drumbeat has only gotten louder since the financial crisis in 2008, an event that began in the U.S. when subprime-mortgage loans soured, and the largest emerging-market nations including Russia have vowed to conduct more business in their currencies.

“The crisis created a rethink of the dollar-denominated world that we live in,” said Joseph Quinlan, chief market strategist at Bank of America Corp.’s U.S. Trust, which oversees about $380 billion. “This nasty turn between Russia and the West related to sanctions, that can be an accelerator toward a more multicurrency world.”

MegaFon, a Moscow-based company that hasn’t been targeted by the sanctions, is moving funds into the Hong Kong dollar, Chief Financial Officer Gevork Vermishyan said in a phone interview last week. Billionaire Alisher Usmanov’s wireless operator has traditionally kept its foreign cash in U.S. dollars and euros, according to the company.

Wealth Exits

OAO GMK Norilsk Nickel, the world’s largest producer of nickel and palladium, is also keeping some of its cash in the Asian currency, two people with knowledge of the situation said last week, asking not to be identified because the information isn’t public.

The nickel producer keeps its free cash-flow in a variety of currencies and instruments, spokesman Petr Likholitov said last week, declining to elaborate or comment on the use of Hong Kong dollars.

In addition, rich Russians are looking to move funds to banks in Hong Kong, Singapore and Dubai, Danilo Lacmanovic, chief executive officer of Moscow-based Third Rome LLC, which manages $400 million on behalf of high net-worth individuals, said in a phone interview yesterday.

Dollar Trials

Since the U.S. currency replaced gold as the bedrock of the financial system after World War II, the greenback has weathered numerous crises. It emerged from the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1971, endured the introduction of the euro almost three decades later and maintained its status as a haven currency even when the 2008 collapse spread from Wall Street to economies around the world.

The Federal Reserve’s unprecedented monetary stimulus to stem that crisis channeled cash into the economy through debt purchases, leading nations including Brazil and Germany to claim the U.S. was debasing its currency.

[...]

[Link]