E que ganha a Rússia com o desembolsar desta quantia gigantesca? O renovar por mais 25 anos da base onde se aloja a Frota do Mar Negro, pelo menos oficialmente. Mas apenas isto é nitidamente inferior ao valor que a Rússia concede à Ucrânia. O que falta? O que precisa a Rússia? Das várias empresas que ficaram do lado da Ucrânia, quando a URSS se dissolveu estas têm que passar para o controlo russo e este é o verdadeiro preço que a Ucrânia irá pagar, mas que nunca será dito oficialmente. A Ucrânia vai passar importantes sectores para o controlo russo e não vejo grandes alternativas pois foi a própria Ucrânia que se colocou nesta situação.
Assim existem para mim 2 sectores essenciais para a Rússia e que necessitam de obter o controlo, o sector aeronáutico (aviões Antonov) e o sector naval (estaleiros de grandes dimensões) e as coisas parecem realmente estar a evoluir nesse sentido:
Admiral Kuznetsov
Ukraine’s Nikolayev shipbuilding plant to join Russian company 2010
Ukraine’s ship-building plant in Nikolayev, on the Black Sea, and a number of other Ukrainian enterprises, will be handed over to Russia’s United Ship-Building Corporation soon, the corporation’s chief Roman Trotsenko told Itar-Tass.
“The Black Sea Shipbuilding Plant will be a joint venture. Half of its shares and of a number of other Ukrainian enterprises will be handed over to the USC,” Trotsenko said, adding that the plans were to materialize by the end of this year.
The USC chief said that the OSCE chief would develop a program that would provide enough contracts for all these enterprises and their subcontractors.
Trotsenko recalled that the Black Sea Shipbuilding Plant was the most technologically advanced one in the whole of the USSR. It has a unique 900-tonne crane, while most Russian shipyards have 500-tonne cranes.
“We are way behind the leading countries in that respect, because we need cranes capable of lifting loads up to 20,000 tonnes,” Trotsenko said.
According to his estimates, the Black Sea Shipbuilding Plant is in grave condition. It has no contracts and requires major investments for restoration.
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UAC and Antonov Reach Agreement on JV Establishment
Antonov and United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) reached an agreement to establish a joint venture on parity basis. The agreement was reached after several rounds of negotiations between the aircraft builders of Ukraine and Russia. The documents may be completed by the next meeting of the working group on cooperation between Ukraine and Russia in the industry which may be held in July-August. The joint venture will be established on parity basis.
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Another attempt at integrating Ukraine’s aircraft maker
Russia and Ukraine have once again announced their decision to merge their aircraft manufacturers. Meanwhile, if no progress had been made previously, this time they have agreed to set up a management company intended to supervise the production and marketing of An-148, An-140, An-70 and An-124 planes. However, the joint venture is no more than an interim stage in integrating the two nation’s aircraft industries. Presumably, Russia's United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) will gain control over Ukraine’s Antonov ASTC by means of a share swap...
...The joint venture seems to be the only way forward for the parties. Russia, anxious to lay its hands on the Antonov design bureau, has tried to kick start consolidation three times: the UAC drafted agreements between the two nation’s aircraft makers which were invariably turned down by the Ukrainian side. Established in 2008, Antonov is a state-run holding which cannot form joint ventures. At this point, it incorporates the Antonov design bureau, the Antonov plant, Kharkov Aircraft Manufacturing Company and 410 Civil Aviation Plant...
...According to the latest draft cooperation agreement on aircraft building (which had been drawn up ahead of the recent meeting of the Russian and Ukrainian presidents, but failed to be signed), the UAC is supposed to get 50 percent plus one share in Antonov – a stake it will pay for with its own shares. It is not clear what stake Ukraine may get in UAC, however. The document also stipulates that all the decisions needed for the companies to merge must be made no later than August 1, 2010. ...
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A Rússia precisa dos estaleiros ucranianos, para embarcações de grandes dimensões (por exemplo porta-aviões) e precisa da Antonov, principalmente pelos aviões de carga de grandes dimensões como o AN-124 e do AN-70 (semelhante ao projecto europeu A-400M), a Rússia tem como construir os AN-124, mas o "core" da Antonov reside na Ucrânia.
AN-124
A Rússia está cada vez mais próxima de obter o que quer, o que fará criar empresas de grandes dimensões, que no caso do sector da Aeronáutica é claro o que pretendem, entrar no grande mercado onde neste momento existem apenas 2 concorrentes: a Airbus e a Boeing.
AN-70
A Ucrânia não irá perder com isto, a Rússia tem o capital necessário para o arranque dos projectos, o que irá trazer benefícios para a economia ucraniana, mas irá perder o controlo das mesmas.
Como se costuma dizer, "Vão-se os anéis, ficam os dedos"...