O Futuro Da Europa Está Na Alemanha

 

Após o investimento de abandonar a energia nuclear e seguir a estratégia de investir no gás barato russo, a meio da transição desta decidem ir para energias mais verdes com o forte apoio (exigência) do partido dos verdes.

Agora, após estar "quase" livre do gás poluente russo, assistimos a algo interessante. Vamos recordar um artigo de 2021:

Why the German Greens want to kill Nord Stream 2

The controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline, disliked for geopolitical and climate reasons, is nearly complete. The German Greens, who are riding high in the polls ahead of the federal election, want to stop it. 

Nuclear and coal are set to disappear from the German energy mix, but the role of gas in the country’s Energiewende is a much thornier issue. Discussions will get even livelier if, as the Nord Stream 2 pipeline nears completion, Germany for the first time ever votes for a Green politician to lead the country.

With a fighting chance to succeed Angela Merkel as chancellor of Germany, Green Party leader Annalena Baerbock was one of the most hotly anticipated speakers earlier this month at a conference held by US think tank the Atlantic Council.

One big question facing the Greens, who whatever the outcome of the election are likely to have a role in a new coalition government, will be the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. They have long opposed it, but construction is almost complete, and while the German Greens have a reputation for centrism and pragmatism, the pipeline appears to be one issue on which they are not going to soften their stance – at least before the election.

“For me we cannot finalise this project,” Baerbock said recently. One concern is that the pipeline, which will carry additional Russian gas under the Baltic Sea to Germany following the existing route of Nord Stream 1, will undermine EU sanctions against Russia. Secondly, Baerbock believes short-term economics should not be the main consideration, as Merkel has suggested. Spending money on modernising the existing pipeline through Ukraine so it can carry non-fossil hydrogen gas in the future would be a better investment, Baerbock has said.

A study comparing the two options was commissioned by Nord Stream 2 in 2017. Carried out by Thinkstep, a German consultancy, the research suggests the use of Russian gas in Europe is better for the climate than US gas. It concluded that natural gas transported from Russia to the EU via pipeline has a lower carbon footprint than LNG deliveries via ships. In the base case scenario, greenhouse gas emissions for LNG imports are 2.4–4.6 times higher than emissions from supplies via Nord Stream 2...

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Baerbock fez as delícias na conferência do Atlantic Council, uma plateia recheada de interesses americanos. Por ela, o Nord Stream 2 não deveria ser finalizado, apesar do mesmo estar quase finalisado (Escassos meses depois o projecto estaria concluido).

Também muito interessante é a sua sugestão de alternativa. Investir na modernização da estrutura existente na Ucrânia. Um governante alemão prefere estar dependente de países trânsito em vez de gasodutos novos ligados directamente ao fornecedor.

Será mesmo que Baerbock está a defender os interesses do seu país...?

No entanto Baerbock chega ao governo e continuou com a sua política.

Hoje, com uma guerra em curso, os gasodutos sabotados e uma redução drástica no consumo do gás russo barato, já podemos verificar algumas coisas interessantes.

Numa feroz redução do consumo de gás russo, justificando uma agenda verde, a Alemanha avança para uma solução curiosa:

So much for green agenda: Germany demolishes wind farm to expand coal field

German energy giant RWE has begun dismantling a wind farm to make way for a further expansion of an open-pit lignite coal mine in the western region of North Rhine Westphalia.

One wind turbine has already been dismantled, with a further seven scheduled for removal to excavate an additional 15m to 20m tonnes of so-called 'brown' coal, the most polluting energy source...

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A hipocrisia em todo o seu explendor. 

Se já é aberrante voltar para o carvão, desmontar estruturas que estão a gerar energia verde é algo sem palavras...

Por esta imagem podemos ver que em 2022 houve um crescimento de consumo de carvão. Tendo sido a fonte de energia que mais aumentou, um aumento acima dos 10%. 

Vamos a ver que dados teremos para este ano, e se o Inverno for dos rigorosos, a coisa então promete.

E numa altura de grandes incertezas sobre energia, o governo diminuir o consumo de gás de forma agressiva.

German parliament approves plan to replace fossil-fuel heating systems

Germany’s parliament has approved legislation for the replacement of fossil-fuel heating systems, passing a major climate policy plan that prompted lengthy infighting in the governing coalition and helped push down its poll ratings.

Parliament’s lower house voted 399-275 for the bill, with five abstaining – months after an initial version of it was first approved by Olaf Scholz’s cabinet. An ensuing fight over its details in the chancellor’s ideologically diverse three-party coalition fostered an impression of disarray from which the government is struggling to recover.

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Interrogo-me se isto irá correr bem. Tenho as minhas dúvidas. O próximo ano irá esclarecer como irá correr esta transição. Para já as perspectivas não são boas. Nada boas.

E todos nós sabemos que a Alemanha e o coração da indústria europeia. E o coração está assim:

German industrial production goes from bad to worse

Industrial production dropped for the third consecutive month in July, providing more evidence of an elevated recession risk for the German economy

Germany’s industrial production continues to nosedive and even diehard pessimists are nervous. German industry dropped by 0.8% month-on-month in July, from -1.4% MoM in June; the third consecutive monthly drop. For the year, industrial production was down by 2.1%.

Industrial production is now more than 7% below its pre-pandemic level, more than three years since the start of Covid-19. Production in energy-intensive sectors also decreased, by 0.6% MoM in July, and is still down by more than 11% over the year. The only positive news in today’s report is the increase in construction activity by 2.6% MoM, from -3.1% MoM in June...

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Se olharmos para a inflação no país, vemos que começa a ganhar um padrão de resistência a rondar os 6%.  Interrogo-me se não irá ficar pesistente.

A adicionarmos a isto, uma muito provável aumento das taxas de juro muito em breve, a coisa vai começar a ficar apertada.

Além disto se pensarmos que a Rússia começa a apertar a malha energética via OPEC+ com cortes de produção cada vez maiores,

Goldman Claims Oil Prices Could Hit $107 If OPEC+ Extends Cuts Next Year

Oil prices could hit $107 per barrel next year if OPEC+ producers do not reverse their production cuts in 2024, Goldman Sachs said, noting that a triple-digit price is not the bank’s base-case scenario.

On Tuesday, Saudi Arabia extended its 1 million barrels per day (bpd) cut through December 2023 in a move it says reinforces “the precautionary efforts made by OPEC Plus countries with the aim of supporting the stability and balance of oil markets.” The cuts, which mean the Saudis will pump 9 million bpd until the end of the year, will be reviewed monthly to consider deepening the cut or increasing production, depending on the state of the market.

Russia also extended its 300,000 bpd export cut into December, with the option to review every month and potentially deepen the cuts or increase supply, according to market conditions...

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Podemos ver bem para onde nos dirigimos. A Rússia está a efectuar um ataque económico/energético à Europa, que irá gradualmente aumentando a pressão. Já tenho poucas dúvidas de que não iremos escapar à situação.

A Europa, nós, estamos a caminho de algo muito grave que nos irá afectar a todos. 2024 será muito possivelmente o ano em que muita gente começará a suspeitar que algo de muito errado se está a passar.

Infelizmente será tarde demais. 

A nossa qualidade de vida e das futuras gerações de europeus já está seriamente comprometida.

Com a Alemanha a liderar o caminho.