Um Breve Olhar Para A Economia Russa VII

 

Com mais de ano e meio de conflito, vamos tirar novamente o pulso à economia russa, que por esta altura já deveria estar de rastos há muito de acordo com muito "especialista" de trazer por casa.

A recordar as previsões do FMI para a Rússia:

• Previsão de Abril de 2022
  
  
  - A previsão para 2022 seria uma queda do PIB na ordem dos 8,5 %
  - A previsão para 2023 seria uma queda do PIB na ordem dos 2,3 %
  
  
• Previsão de Julho de 2022
  
  
  - A previsão para 2022 seria uma queda do PIB na ordem dos 6 %
  - A previsão para 2023 seria uma queda do PIB na ordem dos 2,5 %
  
  
• Previsão de Outubro de 2022
  
  
  - A previsão para 2022 seria uma queda do PIB na ordem dos 3,4 %
  - A previsão para 2023 seria uma queda do PIB na ordem dos 2,3 %
  
  
• Previsão de Janeiro de 2023
  
  
  - A previsão para 2022 seria uma queda do PIB na ordem dos 2,2 %
  - A previsão para 2023 seria uma subida do PIB na ordem dos 0,3 %
  
  
• Previsão de Abril de de 2023
  
  
  - 2022 teve uma queda do PIB de 2,1%, quando se previu no início uma queda de 8,5%
  - A previsão para 2023 será uma subida do PIB na ordem dos 0,7 % (+ 0,4 %)
  
  
• Previsão de Julho de 2023
  
  
  - A previsão para 2023 será uma subida do PIB na ordem dos 1,5 % (+ 0,8 %)

Alguém anda a contar uma história muito mal contada acerca da economia russa. E como se costuma dizer, a mentira tem perna curta. Á medida que o tempo passa, a verdade vai surgindo á tona.

A economia russa afinal está a lidar muito bem com a guerra e toda a pressão que o Ocidente lhe atira para cima. 

Além disto, as previsões mostram uma outra coisa. Os problemas crescentes em algumas potências. Principalmente a economia alemã, o motor da Europa.

Que como se sabe, a Alemanha já está em recessão e temos eleições à porta que vão mostrar o sentimento alemão.

Germany’s economy hasn’t looked this weak since the start of the pandemic

An initial reading of the country’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which tracks activity in the manufacturing and service sectors, tumbled to 44.7 in August, from 48.5 in July. That’s the lowest reading since May 2020, when the country began gradually lifting stringent pandemic restrictions. A reading below 50 indicates a contraction.

The survey highlighted a “deepening downturn in manufacturing,” with output falling for the fourth consecutive month. Activity in services fell for the first time in eight months.

“Any hope that the service sector might rescue the German economy has evaporated. Instead, the service sector is about to join the recession in manufacturing,” said Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, which publishes the survey of German companies in partnership with S&P Global...

[Link]

Voltando à economia russa, vão-se descobrindo algumas coisas interessantes:

Russia Anticipates $11 Billion Energy Revenue Boost Despite Embargos

Russia is expecting extra oil and gas revenues to reach 1 trillion rubles, or $11 billion, in the last five months of the year despite sanctions, embargos, and price caps, two people with knowledge of the situation told Bloomberg. 

The Finance Ministry hopes to put the fat revenues toward covering its budget deficit, which has bloomed thanks to the war in Ukraine, the anonymous sources suggest, although fiscal rules dictate that windfall revenues should be used to purchase foreign currency for the National Wellbeing Fund’s reserves.  

 

But those rules could change, according to a statement made this week by the Finance Ministry. “The government may consider reducing the use of the National Wellbeing Fund for financing additional federal budget expenditures in the transition period of 2023-2024,” a Thursday statement read....

...Despite its outlook for increased windfalls, for September, Russia said it had plans to cut exports by 300,000 bpd—an announcement that helped to send oil prices higher.

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Quanto a cereais, os "amigos" japoneses foram apanhados com a boca na botija:

Japan’s import of grain from Russia grows by 5,679% in July

In July, 2023, Japan increase grain import from Russia by 5,679.4% compared to the same period of the previous year, says the report, published by the Ministry of Finance of Japan...

[Link]

Muito curioso este pormenor.

A China continua a dar uma séria ajuda e cada vez compra mais petróleo.

China imports record Russian crude volumes in June despite narrowing discount

China's imports of crude oil from Russia hit an all-time high in June, Chinese government data showed on Thursday, with refiners continuing to snap up Russian ESPO even as discounts against international benchmarks narrow.

Arrivals from Russia totalled 10.50 million metric tons in June, or 2.56 million barrels per day (bpd). Cargo volumes were up 44% from the same month last year, according to data from the General Administration of Customs.

Russian arrivals for the first half totalled 52.61 million metric tons, up 22% on the same period last year...

[Link]

E Lula... a chamar a atenção para o que virá aí.

Brazil set to import record amount of Russian fuel

Brazil is poised to import a record volume of fuel from Russia this month to become the top importer of Russian petroleum products in Latin America as Moscow explores new markets to negate the import ban imposed by the European Union (EU).

Brazilian imports of Russian energy are projected to surge by 25 per cent in August compared to July, reaching approximately 235,000 barrels per day, according to data provided by energy analytics firm Kpler Ltd. This remarkable increase outpaces the United States, which used to hold the position of Brazil’s primary foreign fuel supplier.

The surge in Russian fuel imports began in February, coinciding with the EU’s ban on imports and its imposition of a cap on Russian fuel prices, supported by other Group of Seven (G-7) nations. These measures are aimed at punishing Russia for invading Ukraine...

...Since the initiation of these price caps, Brazil has emerged as the second-largest global purchaser of Russian diesel, trailing only Turkey...

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E apesar das sanções a Rússia prepara-se para aumentar ainda mais a sua capacidade de exportar GNL. Os projectos estratégicos do país continuam a avançar com ou sem tecnologia ocidental.

Despite Sanctions, Russia's Arctic LNG 2 On Track for Startup in 2023

 

Despite sanctions related to the invasion of Ukraine, Russia's Arctic LNG 2 project is on track to go live at the end of this year, according to Chinese state oil and gas company CNOOC. The first liquefaction train arrived at its destination in the Gulf of Ob last week and is already in commissioning. 

The giant LNG project initially relied on Western technology providers like Technip and Siemens, but these firms had to back out due to sanctions last year, taking their extensive experience in sophisticated energy projects with them. The first train was about 90 percent complete when they departed in 2022, but developer Novatek has been able to get the first liquefaction plant finished with the substitution of Chinese suppliers. 

[Link]

Muitos são os projectos estratégicos em curso, vou tentar acompanhar alguns deles, para se ir vendo a realidade da economia russa.

Não é aquilo que nos pintam. E muito mais se irá descobrir, porque será impossível esconder a verdade.

E a verdade é que a Rússia apesar da guerra e das sanções, está a acelerar. Muitas surpresas nos esperam ao virar da esquina.

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Um Breve Olhar Para A Economia Russa VI