América: O Declínio V

 

Vou focar mais alguns sinais que indicam o rumo desta nação. A super potência nuclear que está no topo da pirâmide planetária.

Desta vez vou focar os quebra-gelos americanos.Já perdi a conta dos anos em que vejo pedidos para que sejam construidos novos quebra-gelos, pois os poucos que os EUA têm, estão no fim do seu tempo de vida. Para ser mais correcto, os EUA apenas possuem um quebra gelos pesado e com mais de 50 anos de existência.

E enquanto Putin inaugura o arranque de mais quebra gelos nuclear, ...

Putin Gives Go-Ahead to New Nuclear Icebreaker

 

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday gave the green light for a new nuclear-powered icebreaker, as Moscow seeks to step up commercial trade across its Arctic north.

Under Western sanctions for its Ukraine offensive, Russia is hoping to rely on the Northern Sea Route — a shipping lane that traverses the Arctic Ocean — to enable more trade with Asia by cutting distances and costs...

... Russia is the only country in the world that builds and operates nuclear-powered icebreakers.

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... vou recorrer a um artigo de 2017 para se perceber o panorama do lado americano:

US takes next step in icebreaker construction plans

 

America’s efforts to revamp its icebreaker fleet have lurched a step forward with the release of a draft of the requirements the Navy and Coast Guard are likely to place on the eventual builder of as many as three new vessels.

According to the request, the Navy-Coast Guard Heavy Polar Icebreaker Program, is seeking to award a contract for the construction of at least one, and as many as three, heavy polar icebreakers.

No date for completion of construction is given, but the Coast Guard is seeking to begin production in 2020. Construction would be carried out according to what the service labels an accelerated timeline.

The draft tender hints that the the winning shipbuilder will be on a tight schedule; potential bidders are asked to provide information about early delivery and to assess issues that could lead to delivery being postponed.

The first vessel is to be built as a replacement for the Polar Star, currently the only heavy icebreaker operated by the Coast Guard.

When it was commissioned in 1976, the Polar Star was given a 30-year lifespan. It was taken out of service in 2006 after suffering an engine failure, but was overhauled and resumed sailing in 2010. Now, the Coast Guard has set a final date of 2023 for its retirement.

Its sister ship, the Polar Sea, has been mothballed since 2011 and is now cannibalized for spare parts for the Polar Star.

The release of the draft is the latest step in the procurement process that began in earnest in 2015 with a pledge by then-president Barack Obama to push for construction of icebreakers...

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Como podemos ver pelo artigo, o tempo de vida do único quebra gelos pesado dos EUA era de 30 anos e entrou no activo em 1976, devendo ter passado à reforma em 2006. A conversa de um substituto já tem mais de 20 anos. Como neste tempo todo não avançaram com a construção de novos, os EUA não tiveram hipóteses. Até 2011 tinham 2 quebra gelos, um foi desactivado para servir de peças para o outro. E foi extendido o seu tempo de vida até 2023. Ou seja, quase vinte anos mais.

Já estamos em 2024. Onde estão os seus substitutos?

Vou recorrer a outro artigo agora de 2018.

Dark Skies for America’s Future Icebreaker Fleet

A new report published by the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) casts a dark cloud over the icy shimmer of hope that the Coast Guard will be able to deliver on its 2023 icebreaker promise.

Earlier this year, the U.S. Coast Guard and Navy announced plans to invest up to $9.8 billion USD to build and maintain three heavy polar icebreakers to conduct missions in the Arctic and Antarctic. If the current schedule is kept, the first of these ships is scheduled for delivery in 2023.

The announcement was big – and long awaited – news for American military and government leaders alike. The United States last commissioned an icebreaker in 1978, the Polar Sea, which has been out of service since 2010. Its sister ship, the Polar Star commissioned in 1976, is currently the United States’ only operating heavy icebreaker.

While the U.S. Coast Guard has two smaller polar class icebreakers currently in use, these three U.S. ships stand in stark contrast to Russia’s 41 and Canada’s 6.

In their new report released this month, the Government Accountability Office has found that the U.S. Coast Guard does not have a sound business case for the cost, schedule, and performance baselines for its heavy polar icebreaker acquisition program.

Bad News for Proposed U.S. Icebreakers

Their newest Arctic report takes aim at the U.S. Coast Guard and its highly-anticipated future icebreakers. Their investigation has found that the icebreaker acquisition program is at risk of having an unstable design because the Coast Guard set program baselines before conducting a preliminary design review.

The Coast Guard also failed to conduct a technology readiness assessment, underrepresenting the program’s technical risk.

More critical still are the GAO’s findings on cost and schedule. The $9.8 billion icebreaker price tag is only partially credible or reliable, and may underestimate the total funding needed for the program. And the scheduled delivery dates are based on the Polar Star reaches the end of its service life, rather than planning on a realistic assessment of shipbuilding activities...

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O governo faz uma análise e descobre que os quase 10 mil milhões de dólares não chegam, que a data de entrega é irrealista e que o próprio design do navio tem problemas. Estamos em 2018, têm 5 anos para resolver as coisas e entregar o primeiro dos novos quebra gelos.

Chegou o momento da verdade, já estamos em 2024, a entrega estava prevista para 2023. Como está a situação?

Pior do que se estimava. Bem pior.

‘Knowledge is now lost’: The west is forgetting how to make things as China and Russia rise

Western countries have not only lost the industrial capacity required to fight a war, but they’re rapidly forgetting how to make the things they used to — and should consider bringing retired workers back to pass on their knowledge to the next generation, defence experts say.

While recent headlines have highlighted China and Russia leapfrogging the US in cutting edge systems such as hypersonic missiles, a report in The Wall Street Journal this week highlighted perhaps a more disturbing reality — that the world’s leading superpower no longer has the expertise required for certain low-tech manufacturing.

The Wall Street Journal report detailed the challenges currently facing the $US13.3 billion ($A20.7 billion) program to procure new polar icebreaker ships to safeguard American interests in the Arctic.

“Delivery of the first new icebreaker has slipped to 2028 from 2024 as designers, engineers and welders grapple with something the US hasn’t done in decades: reliably shape hardened steel that is more than an inch thick into a curved, reinforced ship’s hull,” the report said.

“Out of practice, US shipbuilders have had to relearn how to design and build the specialised vessel, say officials in the industry and the government.”

“Higher-strength steels require very skilled people,” Jeff Moskaluk, senior vice president at steel producer SSAB Americas, told the newspaper. “It’s not like you just treat it the same as any other piece of steel. It takes a beating — that’s exactly what the steel is designed for.”

“We’ve been focusing on advanced hi-tech systems like drones and precisions weapons but the basic stuff that does require a different sort of knowledge, that knowledge is now lost and will have to be reacquired,” said Dr Malcolm Davis, senior analyst in defence strategy and capability at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute...

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Conhecimento. Os EUA perderam o conhecimento de como se constroi quebra gelos. Técnicas do domínio do aço, necessário para este tipo de embarcações foram perdidas. A Rússia pelo contrário está a construir a um ritmo desenfreado, enormes, e de capacidade nuclear. E num contexto de sanções, guerra, etc.

O prazo de entrega passa para 2028 e os quase 10 mil milhões necessários passam para mais de 13 mil milhões.

Penso que este é o sinal mais grave do declínio da nação. A perda de conhecimento. E que não se manifesta apenas nos quebra gelos.

Os ICBM's (Intercontinental ballistic missile) americanos estão num caminho semelhante. Será que os EUA poderão realmente contar com os seus mísseis...? A ver se escrevo sobre isto num próximo post.

Posts anteriores:

América: O Declínio

América: O Declínio II

América: O Declínio III

América: O Declínio IV

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A Nova Frota Russa II