Vou fazer um update a estes temas, dado o evoluir da situação. Estamos a presenciar uma escalada de hostilidades onde a economia está ao rubro. A imprensa tem dado grande destaque à situação económica russa, fomentando um estado de pânico, prevendo um colapso da economia, devido à queda do preço do petróleo. Estamos a assistir a algo interessante/importante, a Rússia esforçou-se ao longo da última década em reforçar as suas reservas financeiras, para dias difíceis e está agora a testar as suas teorias, pode a Rússia conter um ataque económico? Eu penso que sim, terá que haver uma grande travagem a nível de investimentos, mas será difícil de fazer parar a máquina. Não podemos esquecer que não é só a Rússia que é atingida economicamente, vários países são afectados também.
Menos atenção tem a imprensa dado ao South Stream e muito menos à economia ucraniana, onde a situação está deveras explosiva.
Vou falar agora relativamente ao South Stream e a um desenrolar interessante, sobre a visita do primeiro ministro Búlgaro à Alemanha para falar com a Merkel:
Dialogue with Russia on South Stream must continue, Merkel tells Bulgarian PM Borissov
The European Union has not given up on the South Stream gas pipeline project and therefore the dialogue with Russia must continue, German chancellor Angela Merkel told visiting Bulgarian Prime Minister Boiko Borissov during talks in Berlin on December 15...
...Merkel told Borissov that Germany had good experience with Russia as a reliable partner and had received assurances from Bulgaria that it too was a partner that could be trusted....
Declarações interessantes de Merkel. É preciso não esquecer, que os alemães estão descansados, eles têm um pipeline directo para a Rússia e agora não deixaram os outros fazer o mesmo, mas Merkel deu indicações que é necessário ir falando do South Stream. Com a Rússia.
Também é interessante ver pela perspectiva das empresas que participam no South Stream, é que muitas são europeias e claro, essas estão a sentir na pele a paragem do projecto.
South Stream cancellation means anxious wait for pipemakers
Russia's decision to scrap the South Stream natural gas pipeline to Europe has left pipeline makers from Japan to Germany awaiting the fate of deals worth $2.24 billion...
...Germany's Europipe was supposed to supply half of the pipes for the first stage, with Russia's United Metallurgical Company (OMK) and Severstal's Izhora Pipe Mill providing the rest of it...
Italian oil services group Saipem has been notified of a suspension of activities which include pipe-laying operations. Its chief executive has said that could mean a loss of 1.25 billion euros in revenue in 2015...
Ou seja, temos muita gente a perder com isto. Os europeus podem fazer uns sorrisos, mas apenas amarelos, isto afecta empresas europeias.
E quanto à Ucrânia?
A Ucrânia grita por socorro, mas este (o dinheiro) tarda em chegar.
Não vejo ninguém com vontade de enterrar mais dinheiro e as necessidades aumentam drasticamente como se pode ver:
IMF warns Ukraine bailout at risk of collapse
The International Monetary Fund has identified a $15bn shortfall in its bailout for war-torn Ukraine and warned western governments the gap will need to be filled within weeks to avoid financial collapse...
...The additional cash needed would come on top of the $17bn IMF rescue announced in April and due to last until 2016...
...People briefed on the IMF warning said the fiscal gap has opened up because of a 7 per cent contraction in Ukraine’s gross domestic product and a collapse in exports to Russia, the country’s biggest trading partner, leading to massive capital outflows and a rundown in central bank reserves...
...the European Commission was weighing a third rescue programme on top of the €1.6bn ($2bn) it has already committed to Kiev; the Ukrainian government has requested an additional €2bn from Brussels...
...Under IMF rules, the fund cannot distribute aid unless it has certainty a donor country can meet its financing obligations for the next 12 months, meaning the fund is unlikely to be able to send any additional cash to Kiev until the $15bn gap is closed...
...The scale of the problem became clearer last week after Ukraine’s central bank revealed its foreign currency reserves had dropped from $16.3bn in May to just $9bn in November. The data also showed the value of its gold reserves had dropped by nearly half over the same period...
Os dois últimos parágrafos são bastante interessantes. Uma verdadeira pérola, destes nossos políticos europeus que tomam as decisões...
...According to two people who attended the EU meeting, concern over Ukrainian finances has become so severe that Wolfgang Schäuble, the German finance minister, said he had called his Russian counterpart, Anton Siluanov, to ask him to roll over a $3bn loan the Kremlin made to Kiev last year.
George Osborne, the UK finance minister, expressed surprise at the request, attendees said, saying the EU was now asking for help from Russia at the same time it was sanctioning the Kremlin for its actions in Ukraine.
A Europa está a arranjar uma bela duma situação. A Europa vai ter que abrir a carteira para a Ucrânia e vai ter que subsidiar a energia que a Ucrânia consome, por vários anos. Tal como a coisa está, dinheiro vinda da Rússia acabou.
E como um mal nunca vem só, a Ucrânia teve mais "boas" notícias, dinheiro que era suposto entrar, foi-se.
Chevron pulls out of shale gas project in Ukraine
US energy giant Chevron has told Ukraine that it will pull out of a $10bn shale gas exploration project agreed last year, officials said, in a further blow to the country’s war-torn economy and its hopes for an alternative to Russian gas imports...
...The cancellation comes months after Royal Dutch Shell, which also signed a multibillion-dollar production sharing agreement last year, froze shale gas exploration in eastern Ukraine amid fighting between government forces and Russian-backed separatists...
...The agreements with Shell and Chevron were hailed as game-changing opportunities to unlock Ukraine’s potentially large shale gas reserves and break Kiev’s dependence on costly Russian fuel imports...
Pressure increased on Kiev late on Monday when Russia’s Gazprombank announced that it could seize 5.7bn cubic metres of gas — close to half Ukraine’s stockpile — as collateral to cover early repayment for a $842.5m loan to Ostchem, the chemical group controlled by Ukrainian billionaire Dmytro Firtash.
Vamos ter umas semanas interessantes. Com muito dinheiro. E do nosso.
Olá.
ResponderEliminarTalvez o seguinte link seja útil: http://vestnikkavkaza.net/news/politics/63566.html
Feliz Natal!
É um desenvolvimento interessante, expectável e não será o único.
ResponderEliminarO South Stream ainda vai dar muito que falar.
Um Bom Natal para si também.